Analysis of Eurovision 2011 Semi-Final 2 Draw

The first Semi-final reaches the highest highs and the lowest lows. The second Semi-final is going to feel quite different. There aren’t a lot of duds, and we think it is going to be better paced. Because the entries are on more of an equal footing, we suspect the second Semi-final is going to be more competitive than the first Semi-final.

Winners:

Sweden. Sweden goes 8th, and it’s the first big performance we will see in the second Semi after Bosnia and Austria, which go 1st and 2nd. Moldova will set him up, and Eric Saade will hit it out of the park. No worries about qualifying this year.

Estonia. Estonia goes 15th of 19th, after many good but not great songs. “Rockefeller Street” is going to be sounding pretty competitive by that point, and we can think about how good Getter sounded through all of Belarus’s song.

Denmark. Denmark will pull the show together at the end with their anthemic “we can change the world for a new tomorrow” message. It’s exactly the kind of song that the audience will respond to at the end of the show.

Ireland. With the advance press that they will have going into the Semi, Jedward is going to be anticipated like a headlining act. And if they can put a good performance together, they may feel like the headliner too.

Losers:

Austria. Nadine Beiler is going to have a tough go of it.  She has to follow Dino Merlin from Bosnia and Herzegovina, a seasoned veteran who will put in a monster opening performance. And even if she brings down the house, which she has the capability to do, we’ll have forgotten it by the time Slovenia comes along later in the show.

Netherlands. 3Js is a band of 40-somethings (well, 36, 33, and 56–it averages out) with a likeable adult contemporary song, but it is going to suffer because of their early placement and because Belgium, with a similar older-skewing jazz song, follows right after.

Latvia. They had the wild card, and they picked well. Unfortunately, they wound up surrounded by Estonia, Denmark, and Ireland. Taken together, these big songs and performances will outshine Latvia’s little pop song.