Predictions for the 2011 Grand Final

For our 500th post, we’re making our predictions for this year’s Eurovision Song Contest. To help us decide, we made a YouTube playlist off all the winning performances from the Semis and rehearsal footage of the Big 5 and watched it in order of the final draw. It is the second geekiest thing we’ve ever done, with the first being our three hour drive from DC to Red Bank, New Jersey and our three hour drive back home later in the day just to see a Steve Lawrence and Eydie Gormé show.

Anyway, as you can see, despite our research, our predictions vary quite a bit:

Jen:

  1. Germany
  2. France
  3. Azerbaijan
  4. Bosnia & Herzegovina
  5. Greece
  6. Austria
  7. Ireland
  8. Romania
  9. Russia
  10. Ukraine

Last Place: Lithuania

Chris:

  1. France
  2. Ireland
  3. Austria
  4. Germany
  5. Bosnia & Herzegovina
  6. Azerbaijan
  7. Greece
  8. Russia
  9. Moldova
  10. Iceland

Last Place: Lithuania

The first thing I will say is I really want Dino Merlin to win for Bosnia & Herzegovina. But I think going second is going to keep that from happening. If Dino can’t win, I would love for Jedward to win, just to stick it to Johnny Logan.

The thing about this year is, despite the bookies’ confidence that France will win, it really is a wide open draw. I think there were 17 acts that could legitimately make the top 10, which really makes the running order important this year.

That said, even though Ireland has drawn sixth, Jedward do more than enough to make lasting impression to pull in the votes. Jen thinks I’m overestimating their impact, but we both agree that they will pull off a top 10 finish.

Jen is picking Germany to repeat because Lena will likely provide an intense, engrossing performance. I’m picking France to win because Amaury appears to be a magnetic enough presence to drive people to the phones.

That said, I do think he is one of the acts that is really hurt by Lukas Yiorkas. The Greek singer sounded fantastic on Tuesday, and he’s charismatic and dreamy.

The other act that Lukas hurts is Alexey Vorobyov, who immediately follows. Alexey is starting off with a little ethnic intro to “Get You” that is only going to sound weak in comparison to the mfing testosterone that preceded him. In addition, Jen pointed out that by the time Alexey hits the stage, Jedward has already done the backflips and Eric Saade has done the elaborate choreography.

The real dark horse in all this, as it turns out, is Nadine Beiler from Austria. She’s got a prime slot in 18th position, and she’s a powerful, flawless singer that pretty much outshines every other female singer in the competition. Her closest competitor is Maja Keuc from Slovenia, who performs 20th, but even Maja’s dramatic belting pales in comparison. The only thing that could hold Nadine back is her song is a bit old-fashioned, but we’re expecting her to either match or top Alf Poier.

Sort of lost in the shuffle in all this is Blue. I guess if their fan base on the continent is bigger than I thought, they could move up in the standings. But I really think their staging is going to bump them into an 11-15 position on the leaderboard.

As for last place, Jen and I both think Spain and Lithuania will be vying for the bottom. Spain’s advantage is that Lithuania goes fourth. By the time Spain hits the stage, “C’est Ma Vie” will be a forgotten memory.