The State of Our Predictions 2012

Jen:

  1. Sweden
  2. Serbia
  3. Ukraine
  4. Italy
  5. Russia
  6. Romania
  7. Denmark
  8. Greece
  9. Turkey
  10. Germany

Last Place: Hungary

Chris:

  1. Serbia
  2. Sweden
  3. Russia
  4. Denmark
  5. Ukraine
  6. Italy
  7. Estonia
  8. Turkey
  9. Romania
  10. United Kingdom

Last Place: Hungary

Europe:

  1. Sweden
  2. Russia
  3. Serbia
  4. Azerbaijan
  5. Albania
  6. Estonia
  7. Turkey
  8. Germany
  9. Italy
  10. Spain

Last Place: Norway

This year, we both predicted six of the top 10. That’s my usual par for the course: since I started making predictions in 2007, I’ve guessed six of the top 10 four times. (I had seven of 10 in 2009 and eight of 10 in 2010). Jen is more likely to get seven of 10, so this year is a bit low for her. At least she predicted the winner.

I was going to pick Albania for the top ten, but didn’t because I thought the draw would kill her, but I picked United Kingdom for the top ten, because I didn’t think the draw would kill him. In an earlier post Jen compared Azerbaijan to “Oro” (Serbia 2008), but then when it came to it she didn’t put her in the Top 10. Obviously, making predictions for Eurovision results is not an exact science.

When we were making our picks, Jen and I realized at a certain point that there was going to be a lot of heartbreak at the end of the night. I don’t think any of the bottom five songs deserved their fates, but when you have a lot of strong songs and strong performances, someone has to get left out. Poor Norway. But on balance, I think Norway will simply add Tooji to their distinguished list of failure. Had Engelbert finished last the whinging would have been unbearable.

There were other surprises on the night. Although it finished well clear of the bottom, Ukraine’s 15th place result is the second worst finish they’ve ever had. Ireland’s legions of fans could do nothing to stop them from dropping to 19th from eighth in 2011. And Greece dropping to 17th was also a bit of a surprise, although deeply satisfying to me since I’m still bitter about them making the final… by the way, I cannot explain to you my irrational hatred of this song, since it’s a better song than “Secret Combination” and “Yassou Maria,” both of which finished in the top 10 in their respective years.

For me, there were two big stories on the night: the first is the fact that both Sweden and Russia got points from almost every country. To steal Jen’s point, Loreen had built up a big lead early, before the Scandinavian countries gave any results. We knew she was going to win and win big after only about 10 countries. Only Italy did not give Sweden points, and only Switzerland could resist the charms of the adorable Russian grandmothers. This makes sense. After all, the Swiss resisted the charms of Lys Assia in their national final, too.

The other big story is the strong performance of the Big Five. Sure, France and the United Kingdom finished in the bottom five, but Germany, Italy, and Spain rounded out the top 10.

For us, it then all became about how Donny Montell finished. (14th, by the way, with 12 lovely points from Georgia!)  Donny was great on the night and showed up the naysayers that had him pegged for the Bottom 3.

2 thoughts on “The State of Our Predictions 2012

  1. We’re planning a longer analysis post when the jury results come out. At quick glance, I think you can’t ignore the comparatively weaker vocal. Tooji was very, very lucky to qualify from the Semis and while he improved in the final it still wasn’t as good as it needed to be. I think another piece of it is that there wasn’t room in the final for 4 Scandinavian countries+Estonia to all have good results. Sweden got the big votes from its neighbors, and after that many of the Scandinavian countries went for Estonia.

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