We are almost of one mind this year with our predictions. We match on nine out of our 10 picks, and we both admit we could easily be wrong about Moldova. This year, we’ve added a confidence rating to each of our predictions to cover our butts on Russia.
What say you? Do you disagree? Let us know in the comments!
Armenia: Aram Mp3 – “Not Alone”
Jen – Q. Confidence: High. When evaluating Aram Mp3’s Eurovision prospects, qualification isn’t the question at hand.
Chris – Q. Confidence: High. Aram Mp3 is the odds leader going in and he does not look like a choke artist.
Latvia: Aarzemnieki – “Cake to Bake”
Jen – NQ. Confidence: Medium. Second isn’t necessarily a bad draw in the Semis, but it’s a tough lift to expect this amateur act will remain charming after 14 other songs.
Chris – NQ. Confidence: Medium. Charmingly amateurish is still amateurish.
Estonia: Tanja – “Amazing”
Jen – Q. Confidence: Medium. Viewers will be amazed by Tanja.
Chris – Q. Confidence: Medium. The “just let the woman sing” choreography is really what “Amazing” has going for it, and I think it’s enough to see Estonia through.
Sweden: Sanna Nielsen – “Undo”
Jen – Q. Confidence: High. Sweden’s song is immediate, and the staging is professional.
Chris – Q. Confidence: High. Sanna is battling Aram at the top of the bookies’ leader board, and even though this song is leaving me cold now, I don’t see it missing out on a Saturday performance.
Iceland: Pollapönk – “No Prejudice”
Jen – Q. Confidence: Medium Low. Pollapönk’s kid-friendly act will play.
Chris – Q. Confidence: Medium. Pollapönk know who they are and what they are doing, and I bet the televoters are going to get it too.
Albania: Hersi Matmuja – “One Night’s Anger”
Jen – NQ. Confidence: High. Much as I like Hersi, there’s just not enough here to capture viewer interest.
Chris – NQ. Confidence: High. Albania’s cold streak is going to continue. I don’t even hate it, I just won’t remember it at the end of the night.
Russia: Tolmachevy Twins – “Shine”
Jen – NQ. Confidence: Low. Russia has a lot of traditional voting allies in this semi, but I can envision a lot of those votes evaporating this week. Add to the mix a poor first half draw, and I’ve got them short of qualifying.
Chris – NQ. Confidence: Low. I struggled to decide whether or not to pick “Shine” to go through. I don’t think it will qualify, but given the number of traditional voting allies in this Semi, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it does.
Azerbaijan: Dilara Kazimova – “Start a Fire”
Jen – Q. Confidence: High. A no brainer.
Chris – Q. Confidence: High. It’s a small, intimate song, and so long as Dilara can deliver that intimacy on a gigantic stage with a trapeze artist swinging around her, Azerbaijan is as good as through.
Ukraine: Maria Yaremchuck – “Tick-Tock”
Jen – Q. Confidence: High. Ukraine has put together one of the most creative stagings in the contest. She’s through.
Chris – Q. Confidence: High. I don’t think much of this song, but I figure Ukraine will get a lot of votes of support.
Belgium: Axel Hirsoux – “Mother”
Jen – Q. Confidence: Low. Word is the jury performance didn’t go well for Axel but it may not matter. I don’t think Belgium’s strategic path to qualification necessitated tons of jury support.
Chris – Q. Confidence: Medium. It’s such schmaltz, and there is a market for such schmaltz. Plus, Ruslana loves it and is Europe going to argue with her?
Moldova: Cristina Scarlat – “Wild Soul”
Jen – NQ. Confidence: Low. I found 8 of 10 picks fairly easy. My last two were between Belgium, Moldova and Montenegro. Moldova landed on the outside because of the dark staging and because the song is no bloody good. The wig reveal is a sign of desperation.
Chris – Q. Confidence: Low. Nine of my 10 picks were easy. The last one came down to this and Russia. Picking this to qualify is making me think twice about picking Russia to not qualify. On the other hand, what the heck: why not “Wild Soul?”
San Marino: Valentina Monetta – “Maybe (Forse)”
Jen – NQ. Confidence: High. The song is too old fashioned, and audiences have no patience for that anymore.
Chris – NQ. Confidence: High. It’s the old adage about doing the same thing over and over again expecting to get a different result when the votes are tallied.
Portugal: Suzy – “Quero Ser Tua”
Jen – NQ. Confidence: Medium. Some folks enjoy this song’s vivacious spirit. I am not one of those folks.
Chris – NQ. Confidence: High. You do you, Portugal. We’re going to do something else for the next three minutes.
Netherlands: The Common Linnets – “Calm After the Storm”
Jen – Q. Confidence: Medium. By most accounts, Ilse and Waylon are confident, assured performers. Bona fide jury bait.
Chris – Q. Confidence: Medium. I can’t tell if my opinion on this is wishful thinking or not. My hunch is that the juries are going to eat this one up like appetizers at the Bluebird.
Montenegro: Sergej Ćetković – “Moj Svijet”
Jen – Q. Confidence: Low. Montenegro lacks voting allies in this semi, but Sergej has a plum draw and has been singing well. Among the songs for which I have low confidence, this is musically the best one.
Chris – NQ. Confidence: Medium. It’s a good song with a bad ending and now inexplicable staging. I thought Montenegro had a shot at qualifying this year, but they might have blown it.
Hungary: Kállay-Saunders András – “Running”
Jen – Q. Confidence: High. Strong song, strong staging. We will be seeing Hungary on Saturday night.
Chris – Q. Confidence: High. Another resident of the top of the bookies’ table, there is no doubt in my mind András is going straight to the Final.