Our Predictions: 2014 Grand Final

At long last, the day is here, and we’re ready to make our predictions for this year’s Eurovision Song Contest.

Jen:

  • Netherlands
  • Sweden
  • Hungary
  • Denmark
  • Greece
  • Austria
  • Spain
  • Armenia
  • United Kingdom
  • Switzerland

Last Place: Germany

Chris:

  • Hungary
  • Netherlands
  • Sweden
  • Austria
  • Armenia
  • United Kingdom
  • Spain
  • Greece
  • Denmark
  • Azerbaijan

Last Place: Germany

Jen – Confidence: Medium. Netherlands, to me, seems the quintessential example of a song peaking at the right time.  They wowed the Tuesday night audience, and there is no question in my mind that they can do it again on Saturday. Their iTunes sales, to me, are also a bellwether. Folks in at least 4 countries have liked the song well enough to keep it in the top 10 for multiple days.

Azerbaijan is my unconventional non-pick, as I am predicting it will finish out of the top 10. As we saw with Aliona Moon from Moldova last year, even with a boatload of voting allies it’s hard to eke out a top 10 finish from a very early draw unless you really have something that stands out. I can’t say I have a good read of what takes its place instead. It could be the Kedvesem scenario–something out of left field like Poland or Switzerland.

Chris – Confidence: Medium. I am basing my pick of Hungary to win entirely on my visceral reaction to its performance in the Semis. Forget logic, forget analysis, I’m going with my gut on this. For the rest of my picks, I’ve devised a system involving odds favorites, running order, and picking Azerbaijan.

As for last place, Jen and I agree that poor Elaiza are going to get lost performing between Conchita Wurst and Sanna Nielsen.

5 thoughts on “Our Predictions: 2014 Grand Final

  1. In my opinion it’s either going to be a getaway win for Austria or a very close battle between several countries. Anyway, my money is on Conchita remembering her reception in the semifinal. No clear favourite this year though and we might have a surprise winner (or wiener?), something like Azerbaijan.

    Just to share some predictions for future reference:
    Netherlands will only edge out a TOP10 finish, despite me very much like seeing them win
    UK has a good song but too few voting allies, but Spain is completely overvalued IMO
    Since there are few Balkan states this year, the voting pattern will change. Polish might as well get the usual Serbo-Bosnian votes with the song about Slavic pride (and boobies, of course)

    My pick for Top 10: 1. Austria 2. Sweden 3. Hungary 4. UK 5. Greece 6. Denmark 7. Azerbaijan 8. Norway 9. Poland 10. Netherlands. Last place: San Marino

  2. If next year’s contest is held in Austria, we will be there for it!

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