Our Predictions: 2015 Grand Final

Lest you think we are of one mind, here are our separate predictions for this year’s Eurovision Song Contest Grand Final, from first to tenth and then last place.

Jen:

  • Sweden
  • Russia
  • Italy
  • Estonia
  • Australia
  • Latvia
  • Georgia
  • Romania
  • Israel
  • Belgium

Last place: United Kingdom

Chris:

  • Sweden
  • Italy
  • Estonia
  • Australia
  • Russia
  • Georgia
  • Romania
  • Belgium
  • Slovenia
  • Latvia

Last place: United Kingdom

Okay, so there is only one real difference of opinion: Jen thinks Israel’s energy and joie de vive is going to pull them into the top 10, while Chris thinks Slovenia’s song is strong enough that it can still crack the top 10 even from the starting position.

We would posit that Sweden could win from any position, even second, and we can’t help but think their chances are helped by the ballad-heavy second half. (And the fact that their staging is awesome.) It’s a safe assumption Italy will close the show on a strong note, so even after a slog of a second half, they will stand out.

When Russia has a strong song, it can usually count on enough votes from Western countries to shore up the points their traditional Eastern voting allies give them. We saw no sign that the political tension between Russia and the West hurt them last year (when tensions were worse), so they are a safe bet for a top 5 finish.

We are both reasonably certain that Belgium and Latvia’s uniqueness will stand out. Loïc Nottet’s backing vocals need to improve on their Semifinal performance, but now that the pressure of qualifying is off, we have high hopes they will shine. Meanwhile, Aminata has commanded plenty of attention with that big ol’ voice of hers. We feel like she could pull a strong finish a la Rona Nishliu from Albania in 2012.

Looking at last place, we have two questions about “Still In Love With You”:

  1. If the United Kingdom wasn’t a part of the Big Five and had to qualify through the Semifinals, would they have ever considered this song?
  2. What country is going to place this song in their top 10? Australia’s participation may be the United Kingdom’s saving grace this year, assuming the objective is to avoid nul points.

One thought on “Our Predictions: 2015 Grand Final

  1. I had too much time on my hands today so I watched all songs in the proper running order. I have to say that all the favourites should be happy with the draw, as the strongest songs are spread out across the show, and should not directly influence each other’s winning / top10 placement perspectives. Let’s break down the tonight’s contest into smaller clusters for a more thorough analysis:

    The beginning of the show is pretty unremarkable, with only Estonia standing out. They also start a section of the show where all the duets perform almost immediately one after another: Estonia, UK, Lithuania, Norway, interspersed with Armenia’s chaos and the Serbian diva. What follows thereafter is the first critical moment of the show: four solo male numbers in a row. Their chances can be assessed depending on where the ESC will put the first commercial break. From prior experience, it usually happens after the 12th song has been played. If that’s the case today, Loic can largely benefit from going first after the break. If not, his and Sebastian’s chances might overlap in a negative way for both of them; while their songs are different, they are still set to appeal for the same audience.

    From there you can take a 15 minute nap, cause the songs that follow are extremely snoozy, until Aminata wakes you up at position 19, as we enter the last quarter of the competition. Russia and Italy must be hugely happy to get third-last and last in the draw, and both songs stand out despite the fact that from Romania onwards and with the exception of Georgia, we’ll be sailing in the sea of ballads.

    Now, here is my prediction for the top 10, based on a number of factors: common sense, bookies, voting patterns, public reaction, youtube views, view-to-like ratio, 15 year experience of watching Eurovision and most importantly, intuition, cause with Eurovision even the most rational calculations don’t work.

    At this point it is clear that it will be a probably close enough battle between Sweden, Russia and Italy; and the more I look at it, the more it seems like Mans has the least chances. The public consensus seems to be that the song is a Guetta ripoff, and by tonight the novelty animation factor will have worn off. The early draw doesn’t help either. Russia and Italy are likely to be more popular with the juries based on vocal performance, and both benefit from a late draw. The public seems to be behind Gagarina and the political factor doesn’t seem to be as important this year. Plus, Russia has traditionally lots of voting allies. Italy, on the other hand, will likely gather lots of small/medium points, and going last they have all the chances to finish with a blast, provided they sing well. And there is no reason to think that they won’t.

    So Sweden, Russia and Italy are likely to take the top 3, but they have to watch out for Estonia, Belgium, Serbia, and in my opinion, Georgia. Estonia has by far the strongest duet coupled with excellent staging; Bojana’s semi performance was one of the few songs to gather more than 1 million votes, plus she speaks to the listeners of Meghan Trainor in a much more poetic way. Loic is pretty and sings well, and his backup singers will probably do their best to nail the harmonies tonight; while Georgia has an excellent draw, and a song that is brought alive by Nina Sublatti. Nina sang well even being ill, so she can give us an even more terrific performance tonight.

    Lastly, I think Australia will fall short of just cracking the top 10, as apparently the Europeans won’t vote for Australia just out of courtesy, and while being fun, Sebastian’s song is rather unremarkable. Austria has an excellent song that won’t click with the voters and they will finish around 22nd. As to the last place, the UK cheese is an obvious pick, however with Australia voting this year the UK is likely to pick up some extra points; whereas I don’t see how anybody would vote for France: a boring ballad with little staging that goes 2nd on the night will be forgotten by the first commercial break.

    So, to round up:
    1: Italy
    2: Russia
    3: Sweden
    4: Estonia
    5: Belgium
    6: Serbia
    7: Latvia
    8: Georgia
    9: Israel
    10: Greece
    LP: France

Comments are closed.