The State of Our 2019 Predictions

If there is one thing we’ve learned in our years of following the Eurovision Song Contest, it’s that we probably would seem a lot smarter to casual readers if we didn’t make any damned predictions.

Jen:

  1. Australia
  2. The Netherlands
  3. France
  4. Sweden
  5. Iceland
  6. Italy
  7. Switzerland
  8. Russia
  9. North Macedonia
  10. Greece

Last Place: Germany

Chris:

  1. Australia
  2. The Netherlands
  3. Italy
  4. Iceland
  5. Sweden
  6. France
  7. Russia
  8. Greece
  9. Azerbaijan
  10. Malta

Last Place: Germany

Europe:

  1. The Netherlands
  2. Italy
  3. Russia
  4. Switzerland
  5. Norway
  6. Sweden
  7. Azerbaijan
  8. North Macedonia
  9. Australia
  10. Iceland

Last Place: United Kingdom

We actually did pretty good: Chris picked 7 out of 10 and Jen picked 8 out of 10. Compared to last year, it’s a marked improvement.

So why are we a bit disappointed? Neither of us predicted a single exact finish. We both were off the mark on who won. We picked against the winner even though we list the reasons why they would win in our predictions post. And we were really wrong about the picks we missed: Greece finished 21st, Malta finished 14th, and France finished 16th. (It seems like France has replaced United Kingdom as the country we always overvalue.)

We were also wrong about our pick for last place, but we can take pride in the fact that we were also sort of right: Germany got nul points from the public. Vindication, baby!

As mentioned in our recap, seven songs finished in the top 10 in both the televote and the jury vote. Those seven songs roughly matched up to either Jen’s or Chris’ picks and to the top ten in the betting odds going into the live shows, too. We all were mostly on the same page in the end.

In that regard, it was an easy year to call, so maybe we’re just annoyed that we could have done slightly better than we did. We may grumble about all of this now, but we doubt it’s going to stop us from doing it all over again next year.

UPDATED 5/22/2019: As noted by @euro_bruno on Twitter, the Belarussian jury vote on Saturday was a bit messed up. Today, the EBU issued a statement announcing that the error has been corrected, which gives us a new top 10 result:

Jen:

  1. Australia
  2. The Netherlands
  3. France
  4. Sweden
  5. Iceland
  6. Italy
  7. Switzerland
  8. Russia
  9. North Macedonia
  10. Greece

Last Place: Germany

Chris:

  1. Australia
  2. The Netherlands
  3. Italy
  4. Iceland
  5. Sweden
  6. France
  7. Russia
  8. Greece
  9. Azerbaijan
  10. Malta

Last Place: Germany

Europe:

  1. The Netherlands
  2. Italy
  3. Russia
  4. Switzerland
  5. Sweden
  6. Norway
  7. North Macedonia
  8. Azerbaijan
  9. Australia
  10. Iceland

Last Place: United Kingdom

We’ll look into this further to see if it changes any of our analysis beyond the fact that Chris now has an exact pick. If there isn’t another update, just assume we’ve shrugged and just kept on working on our Superlatives post!